Hope amid challenge: Is agriculture turning a corner?

By Chi Tola

Glimmers of Optimism
1. Value-addition through policy: Nigeria has shown strategic resolve by banning the export of raw shea nuts for six months, aiming to bolster local processing and capture more of the $6.5 billion global market.

This move is expected to generate $300 million in the short term and potentially $3 billion by 2027—an encouraging sign of value-chain thinking in agriculture.

2. Bumper crops and import reduction: Zimbabwe, similarly, posture-wise, reinstated a maize import ban after achieving self-sufficiency through improved rainfall and smallholder productivity. That approach signals how targeted support can shift a nation from dependence to surplus.

3. Dairy sector transformation: Nigeria is importing high-yield Danish dairy cows to nearly double its annual milk output—from 700,000 to an aspirational 1.4 million tonnes—cutting the $1.5 billion milk import bill and strengthening domestic livestock production.

4. Technological innovations on the horizon: Globally, “renewable food”—alternatives like algae-derived oils and fermentative proteins—is gaining traction and investment, offering more sustainable and efficient food systems.

5. Digital agriculture and resilience projects: Nigeria’s adoption of digital advisory systems, cyber-agriculture, and agro-industrial zones, combined with World Bank-backed landscape rehabilitation programs, represents a shift toward modernization and climate resilience.

The hard realities

1. Persistent food insecurity and underfunding: Despite these promising efforts, food insecurity remains acute—over 30 million Nigerians were projected to be in crisis by the 2025 lean season—and public spending on agriculture has dropped to just 1.2 % of the federal budget, well below the 10 % target.

2. Climate and infrastructure pressures: Water scarcity, droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall are worsening food supply. Infrastructure remains weak, extension services are sparse, and smallholders—who produce about 90 % of food—struggle with minimal support.

3. Inflation and rising costs: Farmers face higher input costs due to inflation, while poor infrastructure and insecurity hamper yields. In Benue State, for instance, even a 1 % uptick in insecurity causes a significant drop in crop and livestock output.

4. Food imports and extension gaps: Without digital modernization, Nigeria risks spending up to $110 billion on food imports. The extension agent-to-farmer ratio remains dire (1:10,000 vs FAO’s 1:1,000), limiting productivity.

Why there’s still hope—and what must be done

Reasons for optimism

Strategic value-chain reforms (e.g., shea nut ban, dairy upgrade).

Emerging adoption of tech—digital services, precision tools, agritech.

Regional progress, e.g., Zimbabwe’s maize model, suggests how revival can succeed quickly with the right support.

What needs urgent action

Funding & Policy – Raise agricultural budget to ≥10 % of national expenditure; ensure timely, front-loaded releases.

Infrastructure & Extension – Invest in irrigation, storage, feeder roads; scale digital advisory and extension services, especially in rural zones.

Inclusion & Gender Focus – Dedicate ≥35 % of resources to women, youth, and PWDs; reform land access and create agri-hubs across states.

Climate Resilience Support drought-resistant crops, agro-climatic rehabilitation (e.g., ACReSAL), and sustainable land use practices.

Private Sector & PPP – Encourage more impact investments, blended financing, and PPPs in processing, mechanization, and input production. Utilize funds like SAPZ and NADF effectively.

Security & Stability – Address rural insecurity under a comprehensive food security lens; implement grazing reforms and community policing.

Final reflection

Nigeria’s agricultural sector stands at a pivotal crossroads. The stagnation and food insecurity of the past are being met by bold strategies—from localized value addition and livestock improvement to digitization and resilience planning.

Yet, without structural improvements—in funding, infrastructure, inclusion, and security—these gains may remain fragile.

The path ahead demands intentional investments, policy follow-through, and inclusive, climate-smart transformation. With the right will and coordination, agriculture can shift from a survival necessity to a thriving engine of sustainable growth and prosperity.