Collapse of G100

By Kunle Oyatomi

Michael Gerard Tyson, nicknamed Iron Mike, Kid Dynamite and the Baddest Man on the Planet, is a former American professional boxer.

At the age of 20, Tyson claimed his first heavyweight title and, to date, holds the record as the youngest boxer ever to win a heavyweight title.

In his first 19 professional fights, the boxing legend won all 19 by knockout, 12 of them in the first round. With such a remarkable record, few would dispute his authority when he speaks about the strategy for winning.

Tyson once famously said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” At the moment, G100, a coalition of 100 prominent opposition political stalwarts and concerned citizens working to unite opposition parties ahead of the 2027 general elections, appears to have a plan until they get trounced by President Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC), in a few months.

Recently, six opposition parties, which include the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), and Social Democratic Party (SDP), agreed to begin structured negotiations aimed at building a common platform ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

However, the loopholes in their plan to defeat Tinubu first emerged with the absence of several major actors, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, from the summit convened in Abuja.

Learning about the development made me burst into laughter and reminded me of Isaiah 54:15, which says: “Behold, they shall surely gather together, but not by me: whosoever shall gather together against thee shall fall for thy sake.”

Beyond that, defeating Tinubu, even if they end up fielding a single candidate, will never happen. Jagaban is not an average politician like them running around aimlessly as they try to get into Aso Rock. Whether anyone likes him or not, his political history cannot simply be erased. He understands political organisation, coalition building, party structures, electoral mathematics and the enormous advantages that come with occupying the presidency.

As one of the pretending presidential candidates, Donald Duke, puts it, Tinubu is a “lion who also has horns.” What it simply means is that anyone planning to take on Tinubu in 2027 had better come prepared, even though the candidate is jointly agreed upon by all the opposition parties. This means that Atiku and the others have to go beyond fielding a single candidate.

It is not just that. There is another lesson from football that the opposition should consider. Former Chelsea, Porto and Inter Milan coach, José Mourinho, on the hard work required to build a winning team at Real Madrid, said: “I am a coach, I am not Harry Potter. He is a magician, but in reality, there is no magic. Magic is fiction and football is real.”

That applies to politics as much as it does to football. Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Omoyele Sowore, Donald Duke and Seyi Makinde are not Harry Potter. No magical prowess or political alliance, by itself, will be enough to defeat Tinubu.

If the opposition parties genuinely want to dislodge an incumbent president with decades of political experience and a master coalition builder, they will have to do much more than announce a coalition. They will need a coherent strategy, a compelling message, strong grassroots structures, effective mobilisation and the discipline to work together. With such a short time to the 2027 polls, however, it is difficult to see how all of this can be achieved.

It is even certain that the G100 will fail, given Atiku’s unquenchable thirst for the presidency. This fact was acknowledged by the Senior Special Assistant to former President Goodluck Jonathan on Youth and Student Affairs, Jude Imagwu, who said such desperation only means that any coalition that doesn’t have the former PDP man at the top of its decisions is bound to fail.

Imagwu said, “When you are sitting and discussing a coalition, and you narrow it down to that of the presidential seat alone, it is a selfish coalition and will not work. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar believes in his own conviction that if it is not him, it cannot be anybody, and that cannot work. Ambition will not allow this G100 coalition to work. Even if it attempts to work forcefully, some people will be injured.

Imagwu, the statement may sound blunt, but the truth cannot be downplayed.

His recent proposal to revisit the fuel subsidy policy is also an example of that desperation that Imagwu sees in him. In 2023, Atiku advocated the total removal of the subsidy and the recycling of the savings into the real economy in a bid to become appealing to voters.

But the good thing is that the man with whom he is contesting is far ahead of him in the game of politics. Tinubu is like a chess player constantly calculating and making unpredictable moves that would make him emerge victorious.

My question is: if all the presidential candidates, especially Atiku, could not unite behind one candidate before others sought other platforms to pursue their ambitions, how can they suddenly come together to defeat Tinubu? The NDC and ADC may eventually go their separate ways, only coming together in February 2027, after Jagaban’s coronation.

While the opposition parties may have a plan, as Mike Tyson reminded us, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Oyatomi Esq. is a former Editor of Sunday Vanguard (1999 – 2010), Author (FINGERPRINTS: Nigeria’s Tangled Transition to Nationhood, 2008) and currently on the Board of Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), a Think-Tank based in Abuja.