Power expert advocates TCN unbundling as Nigeria battles chronic blackouts

Leading power sector analyst, Awwal Jubril, has warned that decades of underinvestment in Nigeria’s electricity infrastructure, combined with an overcentralized national grid, are at the root of the country’s chronic power shortages.

He argued that the single-circuit national grid amplifies blackouts, as faults in one region ripple across the entire network, leaving millions without electricity.

Speaking on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM in Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, Jubril stressed that giving each region the capacity to manage its own transmission is crucial to reducing outages, improving reliability, and matching electricity supply to rising local demand.

“Unbundling the TCN is the most critical thing we need to do. Let each region have its own transmission capacity. We cannot continue with a single-circuit national grid where a problem in Sokoto or Maiduguri affects Lagos, Ijebu, or anywhere else. That is why we are suffering,” Jubril said.

He noted that population growth, urban expansion, and changing household consumption patterns have dramatically increased electricity demand, but infrastructure development has not kept pace.

“Twenty years ago, the number of households in Ilese, Ikoto, Oke Owa, and other areas was far less than today. Now, can we compare the number of transformers in these communities to the expansion we have experienced? Some poles and wires have been there for 20, 30 years. Who has come to replace them? That is the challenge,” he said.

Jubril outlined three critical components of the power sector: generation, transmission, and distribution.
“The generator, which is like the generator in your house; the wire that brings power into your house, that is transmission, the TCN. When it comes into your house, the gadgets you use to distribute the electricity are the discos. In our communities, the generator we used many years ago remains the same, the transmission wires remain the same, and the energy need has increased. That is the challenge we have.”

He criticized the single-circuit national grid for amplifying outages, noting that failures in one part of the country, such as Sokoto, Maiduguri, or Osogbo, affect the entire system.

He also highlighted energy losses during transmission, pointing out that electricity generated at power plants never fully reaches end users.

Jubril acknowledged short-term solutions like Siemens’ deployment of mobile, containerized transformers, which can quickly increase electricity supply to 10,000 megawatts without building new generation plants.

“These mobile transformers can be deployed to areas with shortages and effectively boost supply quickly. But it is not a long-term solution,” he said, stressing that lack of substations and distribution infrastructure limits the effectiveness of new power initiatives.

The analyst was critical of Nigeria’s distribution companies (discos), describing privatization as a failure.

“They are supposed to invest; they do not invest, yet they want to reap. Where do you get a person who wants to reap without sowing? That is what we have in Nigeria.”

He highlighted the lack of technical capacity, arguing that discos rely on marketing staff to collect payments while failing to maintain transformers or upgrade infrastructure, leaving communities to bear the brunt of outages.

Jubril stressed that TCN’s dual role, building infrastructure while transmitting electricity, is inefficient. He advocated separating these functions to focus on improving the grid.

“Build transmission networks, let TCN focus on transmitting, let other entities handle construction. This is the way forward.”

He praised the creation of Grid Asset Management Company Limited (GAMCO) as a promising pilot to localize transmission in corridors like Lagos-Benin, potentially reducing reliance on the national single-circuit grid.

Jubril urged states to actively invest in electricity distribution, citing Lagos as a model. He also highlighted the potential of private sector participation in importing equipment, building infrastructure, and enhancing distribution.

“If discos cannot invest, state governments and private investors must fill the gap. That is the only way Nigerians will see real improvement.”

He dismissed short-term solutions such as banded tariffs (Band A, B, C), calling them commercial mechanisms that do not solve technical deficiencies.

The analyst placed responsibility primarily on the federal government, noting that decades of underinvestment and inefficiencies in discos and transmission lines make the current minister’s job nearly impossible.

“Even Jesus and Mohammed cannot solve the power crisis in Nigeria if the structure remains the same,” he said, highlighting the need for systemic reform rather than reliance on leadership charisma.

Jubril also cited failed private investment experiences, such as Otedola’s Geregu project, where returns were hampered by disco inefficiency.

The expert concluded that sustainable electricity delivery in Nigeria requires:
Unbundling TCN and separating transmission from construction
Localizing power corridors with regional investment

“The solution lies in collaboration across all levels of government and the private sector. Nigerians deserve reliable electricity, and it is achievable if we invest in infrastructure, technology, and people,” Jubril said.

He warned against expecting miracles from ministers or short-term fixes, emphasizing that long-term structural reform and proactive governance are the only viable paths to a stable electricity supply.