Between exclusion, apathy: Southeast, gathering storm before 2027

By Okechukwu Nwanguma

Reports from the southeast states paint a troubling picture of a region caught between exclusion at the centre and apathy at home. The conversations are no longer whispers. They are becoming open, public, and urgent.

One of the most striking interventions came from Lawrence Agubuzu, a traditional ruler from Enugu State, who, at a national health forum in Abuja, reportedly confronted President Bola Ahmed Tinubu over what he described as glaring double standards in the handling of separatist agitators.

Agubuzu pointed to the continued detention and prosecution of Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), while figures such as Sunday Igboho, who once led separatist agitation in the South-West, have not only regained freedom but are publicly honoured in their communities.

Whether one agrees with Kanu’s methods or not, the perception of unequal treatment deepens the feeling of marginalisation in the South-East. And perception in politics is often as powerful as fact.

Agubuzu’s intervention was rare not merely because of what he said, but because of where he said it – and to whom. In a climate where many traditional and political elites are accused of timidity or transactional loyalty, public candour carries risk.

It is not surprising that voices from within the region are already suggesting that civic groups such as Oganihu should rally around him. In Nigeria’s hyper-partisan climate, truth-telling can attract retaliation.

But beyond personalities lies a deeper crisis.

The fear of political constriction

Pascal Chimezie captured a growing anxiety: that the political architecture being consolidated ahead of 2027 may further narrow the space available to the South-East in national politics.

This fear is not abstract. Since 1999, the region has not produced a president. Strategic federal appointments remain a recurring sore point. Security operations in the South-East are often described by locals as heavy-handed. When these realities intersect with prolonged detention of a symbolic figure like Kanu, they reinforce a narrative of collective punishment.

Exclusion, whether real or perceived, breeds alienation. Alienation breeds instability.

The voter registration paradox
Another alarming concern is the low participation of South-East residents in the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration (CVR). Some have gone as far as suggesting deliberate sabotage. Others have urged Ndi Igbo residing outside the region to return home to register, arguing that demographic weight matters in Nigeria’s zero-sum politics.

But as has been rightly observed, the problem is more complex. Low voter turnout is rarely caused by a single factor. In the South-East, several dynamics converge:

– Poor mobilisation by political parties that often awaken only during the election season.

– Disillusionment arising from poor performance by elected officials.

– Fear and uncertainty fueled by insecurity.

– Discouraging signals from separatist groups, including IPOB’s past calls for election boycotts.

Apathy is not born overnight. It accumulates.

When citizens begin to question whether their votes count, whether their leaders represent them, or whether the system is rigged against them, withdrawal becomes an act of silent protest.

Yet withdrawal carries consequences. Politics abhors a vacuum. If the South-East reduces its participation, others will consolidate theirs. Power is rarely ceded to the disengaged.

Identity, urban tensions and the “City Boys vs Village Boys” narrative

Equally troubling are allegations of identity theft in voter registration in Lagos and the resurfacing of divisive rhetoric framed as “City Boys versus Village Boys.”

Such narratives deepen regional and class divisions. They also weaponise belonging. In a federal republic where millions live and work outside their ancestral homes, any attempt to delegitimise residency-based participation in civic processes is dangerous.

Nigeria’s Constitution recognises citizenship, not indigeneity tests for political voice. If voter registration is being manipulated anywhere, it must be transparently investigated. But weaponising migration or residency risks turning every urban centre into a theatre of suspicion.

The cost of double standards

The issue at the heart of these developments is not simply Kanu or Igboho. It is the principle of equal treatment under the law.

The legitimacy of any democracy rests on consistency. When similar actions produce radically different consequences across regions, the perception of selective justice becomes entrenched. And when justice appears selective, national cohesion weakens.

No region should feel perpetually targeted. No region should feel perpetually excluded. And no region should retreat into apathy.

The way forward
The South-East must resist the twin temptations of fatalism and self-isolation. Political participation remains the most potent instrument of influence. Registration, voting, coalition-building, and strategic engagement with national institutions are not acts of submission; they are acts of power.

At the same time, the federal government must recognise that unity cannot be demanded; it must be earned. Dialogue, fairness, and visible equity in governance are not concessions – they are investments in stability.

As 2027 approaches, Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The question is whether the nation will choose inclusion over hierarchy, justice over perception, mobilisation over apathy.

History shows that regions excluded from power do not simply disappear. They reorganise, recalibrate, and reassert.

The wiser course is not to test how long a people can endure marginalisation, but to ensure they never feel marginalised in the first place.

Nwanguma, Executive Director, RULAAC