Demeide warns: Scrapping Tantita contract could trigger national crisis

Michael Olumide

A security expert, Demeide Master Tony, has underscored the critical role of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL) in stabilising Nigeria’s economy, safeguarding energy infrastructure, and promoting political stability.

He warned that Nigeria’s fiscal recovery and national security are closely tied to the continuation of Tantita’s oil pipeline surveillance contract, noting that any attempt to terminate the agreement could reverse the significant gains recorded in recent years.

According to Demeide, Tantita has, within the last four years, reduced crude oil theft by nearly 80 per cent, restored production levels to about 1.8 million barrels per day, created over 10,000 jobs, and contributed to environmental recovery across the Niger Delta.

He stressed that scrapping the contract would dismantle the current deterrence structure, destabilise host communities, and potentially plunge the country into economic and political crisis.

“Tantita must not only be retained but institutionalised as the backbone of Nigeria’s energy security,” he said, adding that the company’s success aligns with globally validated criminological theories.

Explaining further, Demeide noted that crime thrives in the absence of capable guardians, pointing out that Tantita’s introduction of “creek intelligence” has made oil pipelines difficult targets for vandals.

He cited international examples, including Mexico’s oil sector challenges, where theft surged following weakened community surveillance.

He also referenced social disorganisation theory, arguing that Tantita’s employment of over 10,000 Niger Delta youths has helped stabilise communities, reduce crime, and promote peace in the region.

The expert added that by increasing the likelihood of arrest and reducing economic incentives for illegal activities, Tantita has made pipeline vandalism less attractive.

“Economic deprivation often drives criminal behaviour. By providing jobs and livelihoods, Tantita has reduced the pressure that fuels oil theft,” he explained.

Demeide further highlighted that structured employment under the initiative has prevented the mobilisation of youths for political violence, particularly by desperate actors during election cycles.

On the company’s operational model, he described Tantita’s approach as a hybrid security system combining advanced technology and grassroots intelligence.

This includes the deployment of long-endurance drones, geospatial tracking systems, and the engagement of local youths as community-based intelligence sources.

He noted that the firm also collaborates with key security agencies, including the Police, Navy, Department of State Services (DSS), Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), and the Joint Task Force (JTF), ensuring coordinated and lawful enforcement actions.

Citing assessments by the Nigerian Army Resource Centre, Demeide said the model has been described as a “panacea for national development.”

Providing statistics to support his claims, he referenced data from NEITI and NUPRC, indicating that oil theft dropped by 79 per cent in 2023, with production rebounding to between 1.4 and 1.5 million barrels per day.

He added that production rose to 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024 and reached 1.8 million barrels per day by July 2025, saving the country an estimated $18 billion annually.

Beyond security, Demeide outlined several environmental and social benefits linked to Tantita’s operations. These include a reported 50 per cent reduction in oil spills in 2024, the disappearance of soot pollution in Port Harcourt, and improved investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil sector.

He also pointed to the company’s corporate social responsibility initiatives, which include rice farming programmes, infrastructure development such as solar-powered classrooms and rehabilitated roads, scholarships for indigent students, and the construction of police stations.

Additionally, Tantita has undertaken medical outreach programmes, mangrove restoration projects, and vocational training for youths in areas such as welding, ICT, and marine services.

However, the expert warned that terminating the contract could have far-reaching consequences, including a resurgence of oil theft, a drop in production to below one million barrels per day, naira devaluation, renewed ethnic tensions, and increased political instability ahead of the 2027 elections.

He cautioned that thousands of trained operatives could be pushed into illegal activities if displaced, while environmental gains recorded in recent years could be reversed due to renewed oil spills and pollution.

Demeide also warned that investor confidence could decline sharply, potentially leading to the withdrawal of international oil companies and weakening Nigeria’s position in the global energy market.

As a way forward, he advocated the transformation of Tantita into a permanent institutional framework, proposing the establishment of a Niger Delta Pipeline Security Commission (NDPSC) to sustain and expand current gains.

He emphasised the need for a hybrid model that integrates private sector efficiency with government oversight, alongside expanded capacity-building and reintegration programmes for youths.

According to him, retaining Tantita is not merely an operational decision but a strategic imperative for Nigeria’s economic survival and political stability.

“Tantita has proven beyond doubt that local guardianship works. Terminating the contract would undo hard-won gains, destabilise the Niger Delta, and undermine Nigeria’s fiscal recovery,” he said.

Quoting ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu in The Art of War, Demeide concluded that effective security depends on deep knowledge of the terrain and actors involved.

“Tantita represents that foreknowledge. For Nigeria’s economy to thrive, the guardian must remain at the gate—not temporarily, but permanently,” he added.