IOM: Migration routes grow deadlier even as arrivals fall in 2026

Stanley Ihedigbo

Migration journeys have become increasingly deadly in several parts of the world despite a sharp decline in the number of migrants arriving in Europe, according to new data released by the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

The latest IOM Global Overview of Migration Routes covering January to April 2026 revealed that migrant deaths and disappearances more than doubled along the Central Mediterranean Route and tripled along the Eastern Mediterranean Route during the first four months of the year, compared with the corresponding period in 2025.

According to the data, 821 people died or went missing along the Central Mediterranean Route, representing an increase of 111 per cent. At the same time, arrivals along the route dropped by 46 per cent to 8,577.

The figures underline what IOM described as a disturbing reality: declining arrivals should not be interpreted as evidence that migration journeys have become safer.

More than half of the deaths recorded on the Central Mediterranean Route — 430 fatalities — occurred in January alone, when Cyclone Harry struck the region, further exposing migrants and refugees travelling by sea to severe weather conditions.

The situation was similarly alarming along the Eastern Mediterranean Route, where 244 people died, an increase of 259 per cent compared with the same period in 2025. IOM said many of the fatalities were associated with sea crossings that ended in disasters near Crete.

IOM Deputy Director General, Ugochi Daniels, warned that the decline in migrant arrivals must not obscure the growing dangers confronting people attempting to cross increasingly hazardous routes.

“Fewer arrivals do not mean safer journeys,” Daniels said, stressing that every figure represents an individual life and a family waiting for information about a loved one.

She said the growing length and danger of migration journeys made the protection of human lives at sea and on land a responsibility that required cooperation among countries.

The IOM data showed that migration patterns also shifted considerably along the Western African Atlantic Route.

Arrivals in Spain through the route fell by 78 per cent to 2,276, representing the sharpest decline recorded among the major routes to Europe during the reporting period.

However, IOM noted that the decline in arrivals did not necessarily indicate reduced risk.

Departure points have continued to move further south along the West African coast, resulting in longer sea crossings and exposing migrants to potentially greater dangers during their journeys.

Western Mediterranean route records increase

While several routes experienced substantial declines in arrivals, the trend was not uniform across all migration corridors.

Arrivals in Spain through the Western Mediterranean Route increased by 66 per cent to 5,647.

IOM attributed much of the increase to a threefold rise in land crossings into the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.

The development highlights the fluid nature of migration patterns, as people seeking safety, employment, family reunification and other opportunities adjust their routes in response to changing conditions, border controls, weather and migration policies.

Meanwhile, arrivals in Yemen along the Horn of Africa Eastern Route increased by nine per cent to 70,200, a development IOM said was broadly consistent with seasonal migration patterns.

In Central America, northbound movement through Panama’s Darién region almost came to a halt, with only 135 transits recorded during the reporting period.

Middle East conflict reshapes migration patterns

The report also highlighted the impact of hostilities in the Middle East on population movements within the region and beyond.

Following the escalation of conflict that began in late February, large-scale displacement was recorded in Lebanon.

At the same time, cross-border returns to the Syrian Arab Republic increased during March and April, while the conflict and wider instability placed additional pressure on labour migration and remittance flows across South Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

The developments demonstrate how conflict, economic pressures and changing government policies can rapidly reshape established migration corridors.

IOM said migration should not be viewed only through the relatively small number of people attempting to reach Europe, noting that migration is a global phenomenon affecting communities across regions.

Daniels stressed that nearly half of the world’s 304 million international migrants live within their own regions.

According to her, people move within their regions for a variety of reasons, including employment, family, education and safety.

“Attention tends to settle on a handful of routes, but nearly half of the world’s 304 million international migrants live within their own region, moving for work, family, education and safety,” she said.

Daniels added that reliable migration data was essential for governments and other stakeholders seeking to develop effective responses.

“Good data is not a substitute for solutions, but there are no solutions without it,” she said, emphasizing that a common understanding of migration trends could help governments make better-informed decisions.

Weather, conflict and policies drive changing routes

The latest figures indicate that migration routes are being reshaped by a combination of factors, including severe weather events, armed conflict, economic hardship and changes in migration policies.

For people undertaking irregular journeys, changes in one route can result in the emergence or expansion of alternative and potentially more dangerous routes.

The movement of departure points further south along the West African Atlantic coast, for example, means that migrants attempting to reach Spain may spend longer periods at sea, increasing their exposure to harsh weather, overcrowding, dehydration, vessel failure and other dangers.

The rise in deaths along Mediterranean routes also highlights the continuing risks faced by migrants attempting sea crossings.

IOM’s latest figures, therefore, suggest that migration management cannot be measured solely by the number of people arriving at a destination.

A reduction in arrivals may occur alongside longer journeys, more remote departure points and greater exposure to life-threatening conditions.

IOM calls for stronger cooperation
The IOM said the latest report provides a comprehensive picture of migration trends across major routes worldwide and is intended to support evidence-based policy and humanitarian responses.

The Global Overview of Migration Routes (January to April 2026) combines information from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix, the Missing Migrants Project, Regional Data Hubs and government partners.

The report tracks movements and changing migration patterns across major migration corridors, providing governments and other stakeholders with data to better understand where people are moving, why routes are changing and where risks are increasing.

The figures also reinforce calls for greater international cooperation to prevent avoidable deaths and protect vulnerable people on the move.

For IOM, the central message from the latest data is clear: fewer people arriving through a migration route does not necessarily mean fewer people are at risk.

As migration routes continue to change in response to conflict, weather, economic conditions and government policies, IOM maintains that timely and reliable data, combined with coordinated action, is critical to saving lives and addressing the complex factors driving migration around the world.