Insecurity, hardship may hurt Tinubu in North, says Ardo

Michael Olumide Alabi

The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and a key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu may secure less than 10 per cent of votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the election is free and fair.

Ardo predicted during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State.

He said the President’s support in the region would depend largely on how voters assess his administration, particularly its record on insecurity, the economy, poverty and the rising cost of living.

According to him, insecurity remains one of the major concerns confronting the North, with insurgency and other security challenges affecting communities, farmers and businesses.

Ardo argued that the security situation could be substantially reduced if the Federal Government adopts what he described as the right strategy and demonstrates the political will to tackle the problem.

“You can solve the issue of insecurity and insurgency in one year,” he said.

He said insecurity had consequences beyond the loss of lives and property, noting that farmers, traders and other citizens could not operate effectively when their safety remained under threat.

On the economy, Ardo criticised some of the reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy, questioning whether ordinary Nigerians had experienced tangible benefits from the policy.

“Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?” he asked.
He argued that the reforms had weakened the purchasing power of Nigerians despite salary increases received by some workers.

“The purchasing power has been depreciated,” Ardo said, adding that the economic situation had made it increasingly difficult for Nigerians to afford necessities.

He further argued that the impact of the economic reforms had been particularly severe in Northern Nigeria because of the region’s large population of people living in poverty.

“The economic reform has pushed from the state of poverty to destitution,” he said.

Ardo also raised concerns about political representation under the Tinubu administration, arguing that the composition of government could influence how citizens perceive the administration and its commitment to different parts of the country.

He maintained that representation should be considered alongside broader questions of governance and the actual impact of government policies on citizens.

The political commentator said the 2027 presidential election would allow Northern voters to assess the Tinubu administration based on their experiences since the President assumed office.

He argued that the region’s voting pattern should not be assumed to remain the same as that recorded during the 2023 presidential election, saying prevailing economic and security conditions could influence voters’ choices.

On Tinubu’s prospects in the region, Ardo said: “If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part.”

His prediction comes ahead of the 2027 presidential election, in which the importance of Northern voting blocs is expected to remain a major issue in political campaigns and analysis.

However, the eventual voting pattern will depend on the candidates, campaigns, voter preferences and the political and economic conditions prevailing closer to the election.

The interview also comes amid efforts by opposition political actors and alliances to position themselves ahead of the 2027 contest. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other opposition figures have continued to feature prominently in discussions about possible political realignment ahead of the election.

Ardo’s comments, therefore, place particular emphasis on whether concerns about insecurity, economic hardship, poverty and political representation will translate into changes in voting behaviour among Northern Nigerians in 2027.