El Niño is coming: Is Nigeria prepared, or are we too distracted to notice?

As climate risks intensify, Nigeria must look beyond politics and begin asking difficult questions about food security, agricultural preparedness and the survival of vulnerable populations.

By Chi Tola Roberts- Agripreneur

There are times when a nation must look beyond its immediate political conversations and pay attention to the warning signs emerging around the world. This may be one of those times.

The world is confronting another significant climate challenge: El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its September 2026 update, warned that the phenomenon was firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event, with potential consequences for global rainfall and temperature patterns extending into 2027.

While El Niño does not affect every country in the same way, its potential implications for agriculture, water availability, food production and livelihoods deserve serious attention.

For Nigeria, this should not be another international climate development that we read about, discuss briefly and eventually forget.

The question is simple: How prepared are we?

Nigeria is an agricultural country with millions of people whose livelihoods depend directly or indirectly on farming, livestock, fisheries, food processing and agricultural distribution. A disruption to these interconnected systems can quickly become more than an agricultural problem. It can become a food security, economic and humanitarian crisis.

Consider what happens when prolonged dry spells affect crop production, when excessive rainfall destroys farmland, when livestock farmers struggle to find water and pasture, or when food processors cannot access sufficient raw materials.

The consequences travel through the entire food chain. Farmers lose income. Processors struggle to maintain production. Traders face supply challenges. Prices rise, and households with already limited purchasing power become increasingly vulnerable.

But there is an even more serious dimension to this conversation.

When natural disasters, conflicts, displacement or other emergencies occur, food availability becomes a matter of survival.

What happens to communities displaced by flooding? What happens to families in areas affected by prolonged drought? What happens to people in camps, conflict-affected communities and rural settlements when their sources of food and income are disrupted?

Can Nigeria guarantee that food will be available, accessible, affordable and sufficiently nutritious when normal agricultural and distribution systems are interrupted?

These are not questions we should begin asking after a disaster has happened.

These are questions we should be answering now.

Are our farmers and processors prepared?

Climate awareness must go beyond government institutions and scientific reports. It must reach the people who cultivate the land, harvest the produce, process our food and distribute it to consumers.

How many Nigerian farmers are aware of the possible implications of the evolving El Niño event? How many have received practical information on adjusting planting calendars, selecting suitable crop varieties, managing water resources and protecting their harvests?

How prepared are our food processors to deal with raw material shortages, increased production costs and supply chain disruptions?

Do our agricultural cooperatives have contingency plans? Are food storage facilities adequate? Are we investing sufficiently in preservation, processing and alternative food production systems?

Early warnings are only valuable when the people who need them receive them in time and understand what to do with the information.

Nigeria is not starting from zero, but are we moving fast enough?

To be fair, there are existing efforts worth acknowledging.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) provides seasonal climate information. The National Agricultural Development Fund and the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience signed an agreement in May 2026 to strengthen agricultural early warning and response mechanisms.

Furthermore, the Federal Government, working with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other partners, initiated consultations in June 2026 towards developing a National Food and Nutrition Security Crisis Preparedness Plan.

These are important steps.

However, establishing committees, signing agreements and developing frameworks must translate into practical action at the community level.

Are the systems operational? Are farmers receiving timely advisories? Are state governments preparing their agricultural sectors? Are processors being engaged? Are emergency food reserves sufficient? Do we have clear mechanisms for moving food quickly to affected populations?

The existence of a preparedness framework is not the same as preparedness on the ground.

We must rethink how we produce and preserve food.

Nigeria needs to move beyond an agricultural system that depends almost entirely on favourable weather conditions.

We must strengthen irrigation, greenhouse cultivation, climate-smart farming, water harvesting, food preservation, storage infrastructure and agricultural research.

We must also explore alternative and complementary food sources.

This is where the cultivation of mushrooms and other adaptable food crops deserves greater national attention. Mushroom production, particularly under controlled environmental conditions, offers opportunities for food production throughout the year without depending entirely on seasonal rainfall.

Agricultural residues can also be converted into productive growing substrates, creating additional value from resources that might otherwise be discarded.

For communities, displaced populations and vulnerable households, locally adaptable food production and processing systems could become part of a broader food resilience strategy.

We should be investing in research, technology, training and partnerships that make these possibilities practical and accessible.

Are we too distracted by politics to prepare for what lies ahead?

This is perhaps the uncomfortable question we must ask ourselves.

As a country, we spend considerable time discussing political developments, political personalities, political interests and the next political calculations.

But while these conversations dominate our attention, are we giving sufficient attention to the systems that keep our people alive?

Food security should not be a partisan conversation. It should be a national priority that survives changes in government, political disagreements and electoral cycles.

Climate risks do not wait for political consensus. Floods do not recognise party affiliations. Drought does not distinguish between political supporters and opponents. Hunger does not respect political boundaries.

A country that fails to prepare its food systems for foreseeable disruptions risks turning a climate event into a national emergency.

The time to prepare is now.

I believe Nigeria needs a more coordinated national conversation involving government, farmers, agricultural processors, researchers, development institutions, private investors and community organisations.

We need to assess our vulnerabilities, identify gaps in our food supply chains, strengthen early warning systems, establish practical response mechanisms and empower farmers and processors with the knowledge and resources to adapt.

Most importantly, we must stop treating food security as an issue that concerns us only when food becomes scarce.

Food security is national security. Food availability during a crisis is humanitarian protection. And preparedness is a responsibility we cannot afford to postpone.

El Niño may be a global climate phenomenon, but how prepared Nigeria is to manage its possible consequences is a question of national responsibility.

The time to ask is now, not when the warehouses are empty, the farms are struggling, and vulnerable families are waiting for emergency assistance.

Nigeria must prepare to feed its people, even when nature does not cooperate.

Chi Tola Roberts