Africa’s refined oil demand surpasses 200m metric tons in 2024, says CITA

Stanley Ihedigbo

Executive Director, CITAC, Elitsa Georgieva, announced that Africa’s demand for refined oil products exceeded 200 million metric tons (4.4 million barrels per day) for the first time in 2024.

Speaking at the 19th annual conference of the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) in Cape Town, entitled Africa First: Delivering Our Energy, Georgieva said African oil industry demand grew by 2.1 percent year on year in 2024, and it is expected to accelerate to 2.5% this year.

This comes on the back of a fall in total African refinery output from a peak of nearly 120 million metric tons (2.5mn b/d) in 2010 – to a low of 83mn mt (1.3mn b/d) in 2023.

As a result of the start-ups in late 2023/24, output rose to 96mn mt in 2024 and is expected to reach a record-high 122 mn mt in 2026.

In an analysis of Africa’s Downstream Market Developments, she said “Africa is growing – and the scale of the energy challenge is enormous. We have seen these graphs already, but it is also important to acknowledge the challenges associated with meeting this demand and the conditions that need to be put in place to enable the supply to meet this demand. And not least, frameworks are required to ensure that the fast-growing energy demand is met efficiently and sustainably while also ensuring security of supply.”

The two main challenges in this respect, she says, are infrastructure and clean cooking. About infrastructure, her view is that there is a lot of scope and potential for improving the efficiency and reliability of the supply chain, thus reducing end-consumer prices and improving the reliability of supply.

The clean cooking drive in Africa is having only a limited impact: in 2022, 1 billion Sub-Saharan Africans were still cooking with rudimentary wood or charcoal solutions. In the last decade, 70% of those who gained access to clean cooking (globally) did so through LPG (IEA).

Solving the clean cooking and access to electricity challenges is the key to energy transition in Africa.